Retailers Brace Themselves

If Christmas doesn't brighten up the lives of most of America's retailers, many big brand name stores will likely be history by Easter. Ask Linens and Things. Ask Cicuit City. There's already a surprisingly long list of stores you will never shop at again. (And I kind of liked Circuit City).

It's not like retailers are looking at a skinny Christmas. It's that retailers are looking at a skinny Christmas on top of 2 years negative cash flow. The cumulative affect of this long recession is begining to emerge - everywhere.

At its core? Everyday Joe has no money now. Savings are spent. Credit cards are tapped. Loan from Mom hasn't been paid back. Golf clubs pawned won't get redeemed. Everyday Joe is broke. Mad. Feeling like a victim. And he won't be spending much on Christmas this year.

Walmart now does 10% of all the business done in the United States. Walmart is half the size of all of the health care segment - their earnings are up this morning, as they have been throughout this recession. And say what you will, Walmart is wily in ways most retailers haven't even dream-up yet.

Price. So long as this recession persists - low prices will continue to attract customers - lower prices won't.

The decisions as to whether which retailers will be around in the Springtime have already been made. Everyone is just standing around the crap table waiting for the dice to stop rolling to see what the numbers are going to be. If 7 comes up, they'll place another bet, if any one of 10 other numbers come up, they'll pick-up their chips and find another game to play.

I wish them all a grand holiday season. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening.